“It’s the economy, stupid.” — Democratic strategist James Carville.

We’re in a recession. The US just had its second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. In any normal time, economists would tell you that it’s a simple rule of thumb for determining if we’re in a recession.

Not that you need such a vague number to tell you that. Just look at all the companies laying off employees. Or Google implementing a “hiring freeze,” which is as close as Google gets to a layoff. Even Apple, which prints money in the worst of times, is “being more deliberate” in hiring.