The Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse: What We Know So Far

Key Bridge is falling down, falling down…

I’m no structural engineer, but I’m pretty sure this isn’t supposed to happen.

That is, or rather was the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. And, as much as I want to embed a clip of Steve Urkel asking, “Did I do that,” that bridge collapse likely killed six people. But that in itself is a miraculously low number given the size of the catastrophe.

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Details about the Crash

The ship is (was?) the Dali, a Singaporean cargo ship bound for Sri Lanka. Synergy Marine Group reports that all 22 members of the crew are alive and well, so it shouldn’t take long to figure out what happened.

A lot of people are wondering if this was a cyberattack or some other sort of planned event. At the moment, I don’t think it was. Rather, it seems to be an old-fashioned electrical failure.

gCaptain, a site operated by people who actually understand this business, reports:

The ship’s lights went out twice before the collision, indicating possible issues in the engine room. Despite the quick restoration of lighting, this suggests a full blackout occurred, prompting the emergency generator to restore basic electrical services and lighting.

Without propulsion or tugboats, a ship this size is nearly impossible to stop.

The emergency generator does not connect to propulsion but should support steering and navigation systems but the ships heading appears to have been pushed off course by the wind directly into the support column.

The crew sent out a mayday before hitting the bridge, giving bridge authorities just enough time to close it to traffic. That, and the fact that it happened around 1 AM, is why there were so few casualties. Crews are currently searching for survivors.

They Broke It. Who Bought It?

Repairing the 1.6-mile long bridge won’t be cheap or easy. President Biden is promising that the federal government will cover the cost.

Thankfully, Pete Buttigieg, our highly-qualified Secretary of Transportation, is on it. Buttigieg confirms that rebuilding the bridge, “Won’t be easy.”

As for the ship and cargo, Ryan Peterson, CEO of Flexport, is a great guy to follow for things like this. He says that under traditional maritime law called General Average, the responsible parties are all of the companies who had cargo on the ship. He expects the final sum to be in the billions of dollars.

I’m actually fairly optimistic that they’ll get the bridge rebuilt quickly. Remember when a section of I-95 collapsed last year? It was repaired within weeks, showing that US authorities can get things repaired fast when they want to.

Supply Chain Effects

The Baltimore port is the 17th largest in the country, and it’s currently closed as salvage crews work to clean up the wreckage.

According to Peterson: expect supply chain disruption. Cargo companies were already forced to route containers to West-coast ports due to low water levels in the Panama canal and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Now even more cargo will be headed to the West Coast, which will add to the congestion.

However, Peterson is optimistic that salvage crews will be able to get the port re-opened in weeks and not months. “Salvage companies are known to work miracles under the most intense circumstances,” Peterson said.

“From a container supply chain perspective, the effect from this morning’s incident will probably not be as dramatic as Baltimore’s bridge collapse itself – although it does leave carriers and east coast importers with potential headaches,” writes Gavin van Marle for Loadstar, an industry publication.

Evidence of Collapse?

Of course, many are pointing to this catastrophe as a sign of decline. When you view it through the lens of train derailments, highways collapsing, and planes falling apart in the sky, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

But the sad reality is that these things happen all the time, believe it or not. Wikipedia maintains an impressive list of bridge failures dating back to the Roman Empire, and there are a number that have happened in the United States over the past 20 years or so.

I’ll be the first to tell you that things are slowly unraveling, but entropy is always a fact of life, even in the best of times.

The real test will be if they can rebuild the bridge, and do so in a timely matter. Bridges collapse, but healthy societies can rebuild them. Sick ones cannot.