High Gas, Nuclear Threats, Economic Collapse, and Confronting Fear

We have nothing but bad news, but we offer some ways to process it.

I was hesitant to write a news post this week because it seems like whenever I do, I get accused of fear-mongering. But there are things you need to be aware of if you aren’t already, and we’ll discuss some ways to reframe those existential fears.

Gas Is Going Up

Way back at the start of July, we told you the drop in fuel prices wouldn’t last. And hey, guess what? Gas prices are shooting up again! At least in certain states, like California.

Patrick De Haan ⛽️📊 @GasBuddyGuy

California #gasprices are at a record premium to the national average today, never has the gap been higher: $2.50/gal today.

And they’re going to continue to climb because OPEC+ has decided to slash production. You’d think the Biden Administration would be thrilled since this takes us a step closer to using fewer fossil fuels, but that isn’t the case. In fact, they seem to be outright panicking, calling it a hostile action, accusing OPEC+ of aligning with Russia, and even threatening legislation that would let the government confront OPEC+ directly. Them’s fighting words. Additionally, the Biden administration is considering banning gasoline exports.

Jeff Stein @JStein_WaPo

Key paragraph here in White House statement — suggests, maybe, US interest in exploring NOPEC, or repealing sovereign immunity from antitrust legislation that protects OPEC producers who manipulate energy prices. Would be a huge response

Don’t take this lightly. CNN reported that internal Biden Administration documents framed the production cut as a “total disaster,” and Biden’s panicky response bears that out. The administration is currently weighing alternatives, such as opening oil imports from Venezuela.

In any case, I hope you enjoyed the cheap gas while it lasted! And I hope you heeded our warning.

Putin’s Nuclear Options

Putin’s back on the nuclear crap. I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of it. As it stands, we’re slowly moving beyond mere fighting words, with Putin expected to soon conduct a nuclear “test” on the Ukranian border to show that he’s serious. There are have been multiple rumors about Putin sending nukes to the front lines, but I honestly don’t know how true they are. What we do know is Putin is now openly discussing it, and he’s under increasing domestic pressure to nuke Ukraine and get it over with. The good news is the Kremlin seems to be pushing back.

If you want to better understand Putin’s thought process, read Big Serge’s post, “Politics By Other Means,” which paints a different picture than the typical Western portrayal of Putin as a power-mad tyrant. He may be one, but just like Michael Corleone, he tries to look legitimate.

Politics By Other Means

But Putin says a lot of things. What I’m looking at here is how nations are reacting. Health and Human Services is stocking up on Nplate, an injectable drug used to treat radiation sickness. Kyiv is preparing evacuation centers for a possible nuclear strike. People in very high places think this is a real possibility.

My gut feeling (take that for what it’s worth) is that Putin will do it eventually. Ukraine (with a lot of American help) is far more difficult than Putin anticipated, and he’s made clear from the start that failure is not an option. That said, I don’t think he’s entirely delusional, either. He fully understands the potential ramifications of opening the nuclear Pandora’s Box. So I don’t think he’s in a rush.

The question is: how would the United States respond? Thanks to a report from The Atlantic, we know the results of a war game scenario the Obama administration ran in 2016. In the scenario, Russia invaded a NATO country. How did the National Security Council decide to respond? By nuking Belarus, which wasn’t even involved in the simulation.

What? And why? It makes sense in a very twisted way:

1. We couldn’t nuke the NATO country Russia was invading because it would kill innocent allies.

2. We couldn’t nuke Russia because it would mean the end of the world.

3. So we nuke Belarus because they’re a Russian ally.

Of course, that’s a wargame and we don’t know how things would play out with real lives at stake. But it gives you some insight into some twisted thinking of people high-up in the Biden Adminisatration.

Enough with nuclear bluster. What should we do about it?

1. Read our nuclear guides and understand what could happen and how to be prepared.

2. Understand that if this happens, it will probably involve low-yield tactical nukes in Ukraine and hopefully will not spiral out of control. That’s not to downplay the enormous death and destruction that will result, but just to say that you probably won’t be too affected. At least at first.

3. Live your life and stop worrying about crap! We’ll talk more about that below.

Nuclear War: Hollywood vs. Reality

Nuclear War: A Beginner's Guide to Survival

If you need to find a way to laugh about all of this, I keep returning to this old Norm MacDonald clip where he learns about Hitler. “I’m sick of these kind of characters.” Amen, Norm, wherever you are.

The Economy Is Screwed

Back in July, we told you straight up that we were in a recession. Now people are finally starting to believe it. GDP growth is negative, people are getting laid off left and right, companies are slowing hiring, iPhone sales are down, and the United Nations is begging the Federal Reserve to stop rate hikes before the global economy implodes. Additionally, there have been murmurs about Credit Suisse being on the brink of insolvency, but fortunately, that hasn’t come to pass.

OK, things have slowed down, but they could be worse. Why did I use a provocative heading like “the economy is screwed?”

Here’s the problem. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has kept the economy afloat by keeping interest rates incredibly low. For smart business people, that has basically equaled free money because they can borrow money for practically nothing and bring huge returns on investment.

Then COVID hit, along with the subsequent lockdowns and business slowdown. The government kept things going through generous stimulus checks and PPP loans, which were basically more free money. Because the only tools the Federal Reserve and the government really have against economic woes are stimulus checks, bailouts, and low interest rates.

But then that pumped all this extra money into the economy while also slowing down production, which has contributed to supply chain issues and sparked out-of-control inflation. Food inflation has been especially intense, and new stories are full of people struggling, racking up credit card debt to buy groceries.

So how do you control inflation? You jack up interest rates, which wrecks businesses, lowering wages, and slowly reducing the pool of money.

The Fed tried a gentle approach to this, but that soft approach only slightly slowed inflation while screwing up the economy. The only reliable way to end inflation—and how we stopped Carter-era inflation—is to massively drive up interest rates and crash the economy, hopefully temporarily.

All of this is to say the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. They can either keep letting inflation spiral out of control—which will create Weimar Republic conditions that eventually crash the economy—or they can crash the economy outright. Either way, we’re looking at an economic crash.

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

The global economy is at increasing risk of recession and it could lose $4 trillion in output through 2026, a “massive setback” roughly equivalent to the size of Germany’s economy, the International Monetary Fund’s top official said.

If you need advice on preparing for economy headwinds, I recommend this free post from BowTiedBull.

Set Reasonable Expectations During the Downturn

On Dealing with Fear and Doomscrolling

Whenever people get mad at me and claim I’m stoking fear, I’ve found that what they really mean is one of two things:

1. “I cannot handle this information.”

2. “You’re making my preferred political team look bad.”

RE: #2, the Biden loyalists (most of which probably hate Trump more than they love Biden) are super sensitive right now because they know every fumble he makes brings us another step closer to a second term of Trump. Likewise, when Trump was in there, his loyalists were equally sensitive. But if we want to be properly prepared for what’s ahead, we can’t bury our heads in the sand when we learn inconvenient information. And everything I’ve shared with you here is from mainstream vetted sources. I’m not making this stuff up. So if you don’t like the facts, take it up with people who make decisions.

There’s been a lot of talk on the Discord server about how everyone is dealing with nuclear fears. Many of us agreed that we’re using this time to live life to the fullest: spending more time with family, taking kids on spontaneous trips to amusement parks, and eating more chocolate. In my case, in addition to more quality family time I’ve dedicated myself to the gym because I figure either my body will be physically ready for war or I’ll at least leave a pretty corpse.

The reality is, no matter how well we prepare or take care of ourselves, we’re all on the clock, and none of us know when time will run out. So if you’re scared to death of nuclear armageddon, reframe that as a reminder of the importance of taking advantage of the limited time we have on this earth. Stop sitting around, staring at other people living their lives on TV. Read that book. Write that story. Talk to that girl. Lift the weights. Take that class. Hug your kids. Do the things you always put off for later, because you never know how much later you have.

A relative of mine had been feeling crappy for the past month and went to the doctor. They told him he had liver cancer and had a week left to live. And that’s exactly how long he lived. Healthy guy, late 40s, left behind a few kids. As preppers we’re ultimately trying to hang on for as long as possible, but we can never lose sight of what’s truly important.